30 July 2001

The threat of power cuts and soaring electricity prices show the folly of relying on hydropower, says Geoff Henderson, Chief Executive, Windflow Technology Ltd. "Wind power can complement hydro and enhance security of supply.

On a monthly and annual basis wind is more reliable than rain! Wind power will enable water to be held back in the lakes. A serious commitment to wind power is the climate-friendly way to prevent future power cuts."

"The wind resource in New Zealand is huge. 30-40% of our generation could come from wind power. Together with hydro and geothermal, this would give us 100% renewable electricity. Wind power is the fastest growing form of generation world-wide, and New Zealand has the best wind resource in the world. It is time to stop treating it as a bit player."

"Wind power, at 5-6 c/kWh, is our cheapest renewable option. On a fully-costed basis it is already cheaper than hydro (historically taxpayer-subsidised) ever has been. Marginally cheaper gas-fired power is free-riding on the costs of climate change and risks to future generations. But the recent international progress at Bonn on the Kyoto Protocol means that the days are numbered for gas-fired power to remain competitive. In any event the price of gas-fired power will rise as New Zealand's cheap Maui gas runs out".

"Of course it is too late to do anything this winter, thanks to government inaction in the last decade. And it will take a few years to gear up for substantial wind farm installations. But the government needs to honour its pre-election pledges and not just stand by while we increase our gas-fired capacity at Huntly, Otahuhu and Stratford. Continued free-riding by those players (including the SOE, Genesis) will exacerbate our CO₂ emissions and increase our dependence on finite resources of gas. That would be a truly stupid outcome. Instead, the government should be embracing wind power for the double solution it offers to the problems of hydro-dependency and climate change".

Windflow Technology Ltd is presently raising $3 million from the general public to fund the first stage of its local-manufacturing wind turbine venture. It has already raised about 80% of its minimum target of just over $2 million. The offer closes August 10th.

FACT SHEET ON THE NZ WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL

1. The Global Scene - wind energy is the fastest growing form of generation worldwide:
a. compound growth rates have exceeded 30% p.a. in recent years
b. installed wind power capacity grew from about 2,000 MW in 1990 to over 17,000 MW in 2000
c. the global business was worth about US$4 billion (NZ$10 billion) last year.

2. The NZ Resource - the wind resource in NZ is the best in the world:
a. mean wind speeds exceed 10 m/s at sites near major population centres (including Wellington, Palmerston North, Christchurch, Dunedin, Invercargill and Blenheim)
b. some international comparisons:
i. Germany has the most wind power installed in the world, but few sites with mean wind speeds above 6 m/s (which yield one-third of the electricity that 10 m/s sites yield)
ii. Denmark leads the world in wind turbine manufacturing, but has few sites above 7 m/s (which yield one-half of the electricity that 10 m/s sites yield)
iii. California used to have the most wind power installed in the world, and similarly has few sites above 7 m/s
iv. the "standard" site used for wind energy design purposes by the US Department of Energy has a mean wind speed of 5.6 m/s (13 mph).

3. The NZ Potential is at least 30% of our generation (technical potential many times this):
See also latest EECA report on NZ Wind Energy Potential to 2015
a. the technical potential: - assume only 1% of NZ land used for wind farming, of which only 3% - i.e. 0.03% of NZ land - would be taken out of production. This would yield three times our present generation
b. the commercial potential: - 6000 windmills of 0.5 MW each would generate about 30% of our present generation. This would involve about 200-300 square km of wind farms (0.1% of NZ land) and less than 10 square km of windy hill-top land taken out of production. For comparison Lake Dunstan took 26 square km of fertile valley floor out of production.
c. some international comparisons:
i. Denmark has 5 million people and about the land area of Canterbury. It already generates 13% of its electricity from wind power and intends to increase this to 50% by 2030
ii. California has 30 million people and 50% more land area than NZ. Three regions in California, each about 200 square km, each have about 5000 windmills installed. By contrast NZ wind farms would be much more dispersed.

4. The Cost of Wind Energy - 5-6 c/kWh at 10 m/s sites, the least-cost renewable option:
a. viable if the wholesale energy price is 4-5 c/kWh (plus 1-2 c/kWh avoided transmission and distribution costs). Present wholesale energy price is about 8 c/kWh whereas Infratil's forecast (last year, when it was about 3 c) was 4-5 c in five years' time.
b. true cost of power from Clyde Dam is about 15-20 c/kWh (most of which has been written off by taxpayers in the 1980's). Similarly other hydro has historically been expensive (10-15 c/kWh) but taxpayer subsidised
c. gas-fired power is the only major source which undercuts wind power (about 3 c/kWh for the capital and zero to 2 c for the gas depending on how it is costed). But gas-fired power does not yet pay the costs of climate change. And the cheap gas (from Maui) is running out
d. cost of wind energy is inherently stable because it is capital-intensive so it is generally sold under long-term contracts. Also its "run-of-the-river" nature means it does not normally make sense to play games on the spot market.

Wind Energy will Reduce Price Hikes during Dry Years:
a. the wind is more reliable than the rain. A 1 in 20 calm year yields 10% less wind energy than average - a 1 in 20 dry year yields 20% less hydro energy than average
b. the wind is not correlated with hydro-lake inflows - dry years do not normally coincide with calm years
c. at elevated sites the wind is usefully correlated with seasonal demand. See graph below from NZERDC report 140. This shows the difference between lowland areas where most of us live (calmer in winter), and elevated areas where most wind turbines would be sited (windier in winter)
d. even without this correlation, wind energy year-round will reduce the draw-down on the lakes. Wind perfectly complements the hydro-resource, which provides storage on a time-scale of several months. (The wind varies from day to day, but when the wind is blowing water can be held back in the lakes. When the wind dies the hydro-lakes can be drawn down.)